⚠️ This is the first operational version of the handbook, but it is still a work in progress and will be heavily updated during 2024! ⚠️

Workflow for heatwave risk assessment under climate scenarios

Workflow for heatwave risk assessment under climate scenarios#

A heatwave is a prolonged period of abnormally hot weather. There are different approaches to defining a heatwave. But in general, a heatwave is determined using thresholds for air temperature and its persistency (minimum duration as a number of days). The most common definition of a heatwave is the occurrence of multiple consecutive days with the maximum air temperature over a certain threshold. In some methodologies thresholds are also defined for the minimum air temperature.

The heatwave workflow focuses on estimating the frequency of heatwave events for the present and the future climate based on the EURO-CORDEX climate scenarios data (dataset with 12 km spatial resolution). The workflow aids the user in understanding the effect of climate change on the occurrence of heatwaves under different climate change scenarios (RCPs) within a user-defined region in Europe. This data is obtained for different temporal resolutions (months or years). Changes to heatwave duration (total number of days) are also analyzed.

The risk to the vulnerable population due to heatwaves can be analyzed using the heatwave hazard data in combination with the information on the distribution of the vulnerable population groups. In this workflow we demonstrate such analysis using high-resolution satellite-derived (measured) data on heatwaves (100m spatial resolution). If you are more interested in the influence of heatwaves on vegetation, you can also use the high-resolution (10m) vegetation characteristics data derived from remote sensing. This data gives you information about the current vegetation health. In this workflow, you will find instruction on where to find these data and how to analyse this information.