โš ๏ธThis is the first operational version of the handbook, but it is still a work in progress and will be heavily updated during 2024!โš ๏ธ

Key Risk Assessment

Key Risk Assessment#

../../_images/Framework_KeyRisk.png

The outputs of the climate risk analysis generates information on extent, duration, frequency and intensity of risks and thus already provides comprehensive insight on relevant risks to be considered. As a further analytical step, key risks may be identified. This analytical step can provide additional insights into the severity of risks and urgency for further attention to be paid to understanding and eventually managing risks. The two entry points to such analysis are:

Risk Severity: Risks may be considered severe if they:

  • Are high in magnitude, likelihood, or duration (e.g. severe impacts, large areas, cascading effects, irreversibility)

  • Affect functioning of central systems and processes

  • May occur during critical timing of processes (e.g. increased precipitation projected for harvest seasons

  • Coincide with low ability for risk reduction or management

  • Are reinforced by non-climatic risk drivers such as unsustainable land use or water management, land degradation, urbanization, eutrophication and pollution, etc.

Risk Urgency is related to:

  • Hazards having been observed or projected to worsen significantly

  • CRM measures implemented are insufficient and/or in planning

  • emergent development and business opportunities are contingent upon risk manifestation

Urgency and severity partially overlap (for negative effects associated with risks), and we suggest to consider both aspects jointly in the key risk assessment, which can be done by stakeholders and/or experts. The following table provides further insight into processes and indicators to be used for understanding risk severity and urgency. We propose two modes of engagement: A stakeholder-driven assessment and an expert-driven, but stakeholder informed assessment.

Table 8 Processes and indicators for understanding risk severity and urgency#

Mode/aspect

Risk Severity

Urgency

Stakeholder driven assessment. Outcome: Stakeholder pri-ority ranking of key risks to further closely monitor and manage based on qualitative data insight

Consider anecdotal evidence of socio-economic consequences of observed events for ranking of key risks. Employ available information on implemented and planned CRM.

Broadly consider qualitative ob-served and projected changes in temporal aspects of risk. Derive basic overview of currently planned CRM and emergent devel-opment and business opportunities, which may be affected by risks.

Expert-driven and stake-holder informed Outcome: Quantitative/ qualitative priority ranking of key risks to further closely monitor and manage including concrete actions and timing

Assess consequences of impacts and risks through statistics of observed events or models of future risk. Rank risks according to survey-based stakeholder risk prefer-ence (acceptable, tolerable, intol-erable risks). Assess adaptive capacity and im-plemented and planned CRM using relevant indicators. Consider non-climatic risk drivers.

Consider quantitative observed and projected changes in temporal aspects of risk using climate scenarios. Derive basic detailed currently planned CRM and emergent social and business opportunities, which may be affected by risks. Apply Urgency Scoring Framework.

Stakeholders and experts would consider adaptation responses and climate risk management in place and the level of adaptive capacity (through indicators such as technological, social, economic, infrastructural or institutional capacity). Indicators may be taken from the Regional Resilience Maturity Framework (see P2R project) and may include regional governance and institutional capacity; plans and policy instruments; human resources and technical skills; participatory governance and stakeholder engagement; public support, awareness and climate change communication; financial capabilities; innovation potential assessment.

Tip

The outcome of the Key Risk Assessment can be assigned to high/medium/low risk profiles which then can be hierarchically ordered and assigned as โ€œkeyโ€ or โ€œless urgentโ€ risk. Key risks should enter the Climate Risk Management funnel.

Tip

It may be helpful for your region to assess its resilience maturity. You can find more about this at the [P2R website] (https://www.pathways2resilience.eu/).